Trade agreement between the United States and Europe: who won?

The American president, Donald Trump, and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, agreed Sunday in Turnberry, Scotland, of a customs agreement after months of tension on European products exported to the United States. Is everything settled?

The agreement concluded in Scotland on Sunday between Donald Trump and Ursula von der Leyen settled everything on customs duties? No, far from it, at the risk of showering the hopes of the most optimistic. If the trade war seems to be dismissed, it is advisable to remain cautious in the face of a hard and unpredictable Donald Trump, who handles the cunning with brilliance. The devil is hidden in details and Europe, which can actually “breathe” After this agreement, must be careful of any obvious optimism because the menus details of the agreement are not known.

Sunday in Scotland, while Ulula von der Leyen welcomed the outcome of the discussions, it was actually Donald Trump who explained the contours: customs duties limited to 15% on products imported into the United States; Commitment of Europe to invest an additional $ 600 billion on American soil, and above all, Brussels commitment to buy over three years for $ 750 billion (640 billion euros) of energy produced on American soil to replace oil bought from Russia.

The sum is not light. What energy are we talking about? The United States produces highly carbon energy (oil and shale gas). If Europe buy such energy from the Americans, will it remain credible in the face of its decarbonation commitments made in the name of the environmental transition? Represented by the German Ursula von der Leyen, Brussels has just accepted a very complicated agreement. It will be interesting to see the reaction of non -governmental environmental organizations.

Washington therefore already seems to be the big winner with several titles. Donald Trump is a businessman and the “deal maker” (negotiator) won the bet: minimum 15% of taxes that will fall into American public funds from August 1, it is three times more than today since European products imported into the United States are taxed today up to 4 to 5% on average. First victory. In return, Europe does not take any retaliatory measures against American products imported from us. Second victory for Trump America. Which, by the way, well suits the German automotive industry whose exports to the USA will no longer be taxed at 27.5 but at 15%.

Donald Trump twisted the arm in Brussels for months of negotiations and finally obtained cause: customs duties on European products greater than what they were before, and a non-reaction of Europe, paralyzed for lack of political, industrial and commercial strategy.