The financial markets send alert signals to Donald Trump

The New York Stock Exchange dived on Monday. With -2% for the Dow Jones index and -4% for the NASDAQ, investors are concerned about a possible recession in the United States.

The Dow Jones index, the equivalent of the CAC 40 in Paris, fell sharply on Monday March 10, losing 2% at the end of the New York Stock Exchange. And the Nasdaq, which represents technological values, has sold 4%.

The fear of a recession is all the more fueled by a television hesitation by the American president, Donald Trump. Sunday evening, during an interview with the television channel Fox NewsThe journalist asked him if he feared an economic recession. “I hate predicting things like that”replied the president, grateful “A transition period”. The word “transition” is obviously badly spent.

Donald Trump referred to the policy he is putting in place with his business partners and customs duties. However, all forecastists agree that this policy is an inflationary. Taxes imposed on products that enter the United States can only refer to the final price of items purchased by American citizens. And this concerns both current consumption products and manufactured products, made with imported raw materials, themselves surcharged.

This inflation that weighs on consumption will also weigh on growth, according to economists. It is the big fear that is added to an already difficult situation for the American economy. These difficulties are at two levels: the deficit in foreign trade and employment.

The American trade balance further degraded in January, after a year 2024 in the red. The exchange of exchanges with the international reached $ 131 billion (+30% over a month), for the benefit of Chinese and Europeans. The latter have indeed sold more to the Americans than they bought American. And that does not appeal to Donald Trump. By the way, the layoffs announced by employers in the country increased by 245% in February, unheard of since the subprime crisis in 2008-2009 and the COVVI episode in 2020.

The increase of 245%, is not that of the unemployment rate in the United States, but that of the number of layoffs: departures in the public service with the dismissals in good standing by the Trump administration, but also on the part of companies, worried about the trade war waged by the American president and which are beginning to see cancellations of contracts. Today, the financial markets are starting to send messages to the American president. A little more than a month after his return to the White House, the businessman Donald Trump seems to have already been recalled to the reality principle.