Editorial. When Sébastien Lecornu and the socialists play poker

Who bluffed? This is the whole question. Sébastien Lecornu when he storms humility or the socialists when they say they are not afraid to censor again?

After the union mobilization of October 2, the political discussion will resume on Friday and the socialists are expected in Matignon for a new round, undoubtedly decisive, of a part of poker at the end of uncertain. It is “Matignon, the hell of the game”, with a question that hovers above the table: who bluff? Sébastien Lecornu when he announces “Ruptures on the merits” Who remain invisible, or the socialists when they say they are ready to censor the government if the Prime Minister does not make them significant concessions.

So far, the two players have just gauged. Sébastien Lecornu stormed humility. He repeated to his interlocutors that he was the Prime Minister “The weakest of the Fifth Republic”that power was now in the assembly, and that the stake is not “The Lecornu budget, but everyone’s budget”. According to him, he plays poker with a pair of two.

The small number of Caliméro de Matignon began by pleased the socialists. Olivier Faure was annoyed by the attitude of François Bayrou, whom he considered both muddled and condescending. He appreciated “the break on the form” claimed by his successor. But on the merits, he waits to see and was seriously scalded by the first cards unveiled by the tenant of Matignon. No Zucman tax, no return from the ISF and no more suspension of the pension reform.

Sébastien Lecornu has thrown a cold and he has been eating for a few days to correct the shooting by evoking a wealthy tax effort or improving the retirement of women. But to convince the socialists, he will not be able to send them back to the discussion in Parliament. He will have to make a carpet now, offer them trophies to brandish in front of left-wing voters, especially those who are mobilizing on Thursday: the burial of a new unemployment insurance reform, measures in favor of purchasing power or a significant taxation for high income.

Otherwise ? The censorship of a third Prime Minister in just over a year would make dissolution inevitable. Socialists repeat that they are not afraid. They brandish projections which predict them a clear progression in seats, without needing to take refuge in the arms of the rebellious with which they claim a definitive rupture. They may bluff. Those who do not bluff, on the other hand, are the deputies of the central block, terrified at the idea of ​​anticipated legislative elections which would send them to the carpet by tens. We do not yet know who would be victorious of a new dissolution, we can easily guess the one who would be the big loser: Emmanuel Macron.