we explain the causes of the increase in the Social Security deficit, estimated at 23 billion euros in 2025

In a note published Monday, the Court of Auditors points out the overly optimistic perspectives on which the last governments have based themselves, while the examination of the Social Security financing bill begins Tuesday in the hemicycle of the National Assembly.

Social Security, which celebrated its 80th anniversary this year, is not in the best shape. In a report published Monday, November 3, the Court of Auditors warns of the financial situation of the system, which “remains worrying”. Its deficit is expected to reach 23 billion euros in 2025, an increase of 7.7 billion euros over one year. “The deficit deteriorated sharply in 2025 and will have doubled in two years”strikes the institution.

The timing of this publication is particularly well chosen. The parliamentary examination of the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS) begins Tuesday in the National Assembly, in an electric political climate.

This communication complements the report of the Court of Auditors on the application of Social Security financing laws, published in May. The court already warned that “the trajectory of social accounts” had become “out of control”. The law on financing Social Security 2025 then provided a deficit of 22.1 billion euros in 2025. “This objective will not be achieved (…) with a deterioration of 0.9 billion”underline the experts in the new note.

Thus, in two years, the “hole” in Social Security has more than doubled and is now, excluding the Covid-19 crisis (period during which health spending soared), at the highest level observed since 2012. However, the country has not recently experienced any crisis that could explain this situation. Franceinfo summarizes some of the reasons which led to such a situation.

A “gloomy” economic situation

The payroll forecast had to be revised and social revenues are lower than expected, increasing by 2.4% in 2025, compared to the 3.1% initially forecast, we can read in the report unveiled on Monday. The Court of Auditors points to France’s more than limited performance, with “a cyclical decline in revenues, linked to the economic slowdown”.

The year 2025 is described as “gloomy”, with GDP growth forecast at 0.7%. All while the increase in revenue (1.4%) “is barely above expected inflation” for 2025 (1.1%).

Expenses that continue to grow

This lack of resources is combined with significant expenses. The health sector in particular saw its deficit increase by 3.4 billion. According to the Court of Auditors, these increases in expenditure can be explained by the “dynamics of community carethe activity of health establishments, and a significant volume of new measures”whose “creation of additional places in medico-social establishments”.

The industrial accidents and occupational diseases branch (AT-MP) is also in a deficit situation, for the first time since 2012 “due to the transfers of contributions made in 2024 to the old age branch, in connection with the pension reform”analyzes the institution. More generally, the deficit is chronic: the old age and old age solidarity fund branch is also affected by an increase in the “hole” of 1.3 billion. Only the family branch is profitable, but the surplus is “reduced compared to 2024”.

Overly optimistic governments

The Court of Auditors also criticizes the lack of rigor on the part of governments. “This slippage once again points to overly optimistic economic hypotheses”she criticizes. She specifies that the observation is repeated “for the third year in a row”. “It is impossible, I repeat, impossible to claim in all conscience that no one knew of the repeated fragility of the forecasts during this period”had moreover hammered at the very beginning of the year the president of the body, the former Minister of the Socialist Economy Pierre Moscovici, before the deputies of the commission of inquiry of the National Assembly on the causes of the slippage of the public deficit in 2023 and 2024.

In January, the High Council of Public Finances had already expressed its doubts about the Bayrou government’s objectives for 2025. It explained that this project “offers(has) few safety margins”.

Are we going in the same direction in 2026? As part of the Social Security financing bill, “a significant effort is planned” pour “initiate a process of deficit reduction”notes the Court of Auditors. The government wants to reduce the deficit to 17.5 billion euros. But the court expresses doubts about the possibility of achieving this. “What is planned in terms of controlling social spending in 2026 is very ambitious, very fragile, very vulnerable, and almost in a certain way hypothetical,” Pierre Moscovici declared Monday. “And if the parliamentary debate turns in a certain way (…), we could even see a maintenance, or even an increase, in the deficit”. “At that point, we will not meet the objectives.” overall, he warned.

This uncertainty pushes the Court of Auditors to worry about the Central Agency for Social Security Organizations (Acoss). “In the event of a deficit in the general scheme or schemes whose cash flow is assured” by this entity, the latter “is authorized by law to borrow short term within a fixed limit” by the financing law. However, according to Pierre Moscovici and his team, Acoss is incurring “a serious liquidity risk in the coming years.” “The announced prospects of the financing law, in the absence of a credible trajectory of return of the social accounts towards balance, do not call into question this diagnosis”believes the institution. In other words, Social Security risks finding itself, in the long term, unable to meet its financial deadlines.