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A “strategic error” or a step in “the right direction” ? The European Commission proposed, on Tuesday, December 16, to abandon the objective of banning the sale of new cars with thermal engines from 2035. The European executive is now aiming for a target of 90% of new electric cars sold in ten years, authorizing a limited share of thermal engines in return for compensation, including the use of European green steel.
This is a victory for the automobile industry, three years after the adoption of the previous objective. Faced with fierce competition from China, the sector required more time to develop new models and attract driver support. “This relaxation is going in the right direction,” said Luc Chatel, former Minister of Industry and president of the automotive platform which brings together French manufacturers and equipment suppliers, on franceinfo on Tuesday. Not enough to convince environmental NGOs and many specialists on the subject. “This decision endangers our climate objectives, but also our emerging electric vehicle industry”considers Neil Makaroff, director of Strategic Perspectives and expert at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation.
Is the transition to electric vehicles, crucial to achieving the European objective of carbon neutrality in 2050 set by law, off to a bad start? “The products are there, consumers are not following,” said Luc Chatel on Tuesday. Yet the momentum is there, according to data from European manufacturers. While sales of new electric vehicles represented 15.3% and 14.4% of total sales in Europe in 2023 and 2024, this figure is expected to reach 18.4% in 2025, according to calculations by the NGO Transport & Environmentbased on data transmitted by the automotive giants. “The market is not peaking at all, there is a very strong increase in sales (electric cars)including in France, where they represent 20% of new vehicles this year, and even 26% in November.”explains Nicolas Raffin, spokesperson for this organization which is dedicated to the decarbonization of transport.
The trend is confirmed by Antoine Dupont, deputy head of the transport and mobility department at the Ecological Transition Agency (Ademe). “We are seeing a recovery in the market in new construction, which is due with the return of social leasingbut also with the arrival on the market of more affordable vehicles, like the Renault 5“explains the specialist. Overtaken by Chinese manufacturers in the segment of cars priced less than 20,000 euros, the Europeans, who had favored high-end models, are in full counter-attack. In September, the German Volkswagen presented its new electric ID Polo car, which is scheduled to arrive in 2026.
The battle is not only being played out on the new home market. In 2024, the second-hand market represented 75.8% of passenger car purchases in France, according to figures from the government. The vast majority of vehicles on sale remain thermal,“even if the number of electric cars available is not negligible”. But consumers, held back by preconceived ideas, are still few in number considering purchasing a used electric car. “The subject of battery life can be blocking, even though it holds up very well over time, just like that of the availability of charging stations,” points out Antoine Dupont. The specialist is also worried “misinformation surrounding the subject”.
“Only one in five French people think that an electric vehicle is more ecological than a thermal car, even though over a complete life cycle, it emits much less CO2.”
Antoine Dupont, deputy head of the transport and mobility department at the Ecological Transition Agency (Ademe)at franceinfo
Even if there are disparities between countries, Europeans still need to “acculturate” to the electric car. However, the subject finds itself at the heart of a cultural and political battle. The far right and part of the right, such as the National Rally or Les Républicains in France, have constantly criticized the decision to ban new thermal cars. In the European Parliament, this alliance has made it possible to unravel Green Deal measures in recent months. “It is a problem for the electrification of the market that those who say that electricity has no future have more and more voices in Europe”observes Nicolas Raffin, of Transport & Environment.
These political tensions do not help consumers plan for the future. In addition to the European turnaround, it is not always easy for national governments to make the electrification of the sector a priority, in these times of budgetary restrictions. France thus reduced the ecological bonus from 7,000 to 4,000 euros in 2024. The risk: making public policies illegible. “The European decision adds a lot of confusion for consumers and manufacturers at a time when we need clarity”believes Nicolas Raffin, who is worried about seeing Europe “divert part of the investments towards technologies which will no longer be dominant in the future”.
In the United States, Donald Trump’s crusade against electric vehicles and the energy transition is already having effects on the industry. The manufacturer Ford announced on Tuesday its intention to abandon its objective of a 100% electric fleet, announcing in the process a loss of 19.5 billion dollars, reports CNN. A few days earlier, the American company presented a partnership with Renault in France, to assemble small electric cars in the North.
For Europe, the question of transition is also industrial. Left behind by Chinese manufacturers who offer less expensive small electric models, European companies, in the middle of a crisispleaded with the Commission for more time to adapt their production. “The entire European automobile industry has been warning for many months about the seriousness of the situation we are going through, even to the point of jeopardizing the future of the automobile industry in Europe,” thus launched Luc Chatel, even if certain groups – such as Volvo, Volkswagen and Renault – are more advanced than their competitors in their transition.
Will the future leave room for thermal engines, a specialty of European manufacturers? It is important not to “lock ourselves into a single technology, a fortiori in a technology of which we do not control the entire value chain”affirmed Luc Chatel, taking up the arguments of the sector. This “short-termism undermines the ability to build a solid industry”replies Nicolas Raffin. It could even prove harmful for European industry on “the long term” by preventing it from being competitive abroad, “while the rest of the world is not waiting for Europe to electrify its fleet”adds Neil Makaroff, of Strategic Perspectives.
The risk is that Europeans will go electric, but without European cars. “The change of objective can profoundly damage our industrial base for batteries, vehicles and, ultimately, have impacts in terms of employment and investment”adds Neil Makaroff. The specialist believes that“an investor could be more tempted to favor China or Japan, where the electrification of the sector is assured”.
Faced with criticism, the European Commission defends a decision “pragmatic”, in the words of the European Commissioner for Industry, Stéphane Séjourné. To soften its announcement, the European executive presented a series of measures to support the electrification of the sector, including targets for “greening” corporate fleets, a “positive point, knowing that 60% of new cars are purchased by companies”notes Nicolas Raffin. The Commission is also counting on zero-interest loans for the production of batteries in Europe, the crux of the matter in the race for electricity.
Despite these reversals, players in the automotive sector continue to expect growth in sales of electric cars in the coming years. But “the transition to battery-electric vehicles will slow down, Europe’s cars will pollute more, and the European auto industry will lose ground”summarizes with AFP Jan Dornoff, researcher at the International Council on Clean Transportation, a think tank based in Berlin.
Projections from Transport & Environment predict a share of electric cars in new construction of around 75% in 2035, instead of the 100% initially envisaged for this horizon. Financial advisory group AlixPartners expects 62%, reports Reuters. A scenario which will have consequences for the climate and European objectives. “A vehicle has a lifespan of around fifteen years, so delaying the zero CO2 emissions objective to 2040 means that we put climate neutrality out of reach for 2050”anticipates Neil Makaroff.
