Tunisia is preparing to experience a notable and progressive change in its weather conditions from the end of the day on Friday, December 26, 2025. After several days characterized by persistent cold, an atmospheric depression currently centered on the Mediterranean basin should gradually influence the country. The northern and central governorates will be particularly affected, with precipitation expected from Friday evening and until the weekend.
This information was detailed by Ameur Bahba, expert in climatology and associate professor of geography, during a telephone intervention on the show Sbeh El Wardhosted by Hatem Ben Amara on Jawhara FM, Thursday December 25, 2025.
Persistent cold, frosts and contrasting temperatures
Before the arrival of the depression, Tunisia experienced marked cold weather, particularly during the night and the early hours of the morning. Ameur Bahba stressed the presence of hoar frosts, particularly in interior and western regions, where temperatures drop to zero degrees or even slightly below due to high humidity. These conditions can blanket vegetation and soil, with negative effects on certain cold-sensitive crops and plant species.
The areas most affected by these frosts include the governorates of Kasserine, Kairouan, Le Kef, Sidi Bouzid and Gafsa. In the west, minimum temperatures generally oscillate between two and five degrees, while in the east they vary between six and nine degrees, confirming the thermal contrast between the different regions. These values favor the formation of frosts mainly during the late night and early morning.
During the day, temperatures rise gradually. On the reliefs, the maximums are generally between twelve and thirteen degrees, while in many regions they reach 17 to 18 degrees, with peaks locally close to 19 degrees in certain eastern coastal areas. Ameur Bahba stressed that these days remain relatively mild compared to the cold nights, and that this thermal configuration will be maintained until the arrival of the atmospheric depression.
An approaching Mediterranean depression and expected instability
The atmospheric depression currently centered on the Mediterranean basin is already responsible for marked winter conditions in several northern Mediterranean countries, notably Italy and France, where episodes of rain, intense cold and even snow have been observed. This disturbance should gradually move south and begin to influence Tunisia from late Friday afternoon, with a drop in temperatures, increased cloudiness and the appearance of the first rains in the north of the country.
Ameur Bahba said the effects of the depression will extend until the end of the weekend, with generally cold and unstable weather. Precipitation will intensify throughout the evening of Friday and will become widespread overnight over the northeast and central-east regions. Even after the passage of the main peak, intermittent rainy returns could occur on Sunday and Monday, linked to the persistence of the depression over the Mediterranean basin and the humid upwellings towards the Tunisian coasts. These secondary episodes should, however, be of less intensity.
Regions affected, peak of disruptions and outlook for January 2026
According to the expert, the most active period of this episode will be between the evening of Friday and the morning of Saturday, corresponding to the peak of the disturbances. The most affected areas are located in the northeast, particularly around the Gulf of Hammamet, and include the governorates of Nabeul, Sousse, Zaghouan and Ben Arous, as well as Greater Tunis. The Sahel regions, notably Sousse, Monastir and Mahdia, will also be affected, with more moderate rains in Monastir and Mahdia.
Locally heavy rainfall is also expected in parts of the northwest, while the center of the country, notably Kairouan, could record rain of varying intensity. On the other hand, southern Tunisia will remain largely on the fringes of this disturbance, with rare or very limited precipitation.
Ameur Bahba finally spoke about the short-term prospects. He mentioned the possibility of a new atmospheric depression between January 3 and 6, 2026, likely to bring a new episode of instability and winter conditions to several regions of the country. This scenario remains to be confirmed by future updates of the forecast models, but it highlights the importance for the population and the authorities to remain attentive to weather alerts.
I.N.
