Sébastien Lecornu, the monk-soldier of Matignon facing the challenge of the 2026 budget

Sébastien Lecornu is going through the most delicate weeks of his mandate at Matignon. Faced with the 2026 budget, deemed mission impossible, and sometimes hostile partners, he has no other choice but to play the role of monk-soldier.

France will not have a budget before the end of the year, but it still has a Prime Minister. Sébastien Lecornu will end the year 2025 at Matignon. Its ability to last in 2026 will be one of the major challenges of the coming weeks, while Matignon has transformed into an extreme rodeo since the dissolution.

Michel Barnier held out for three months before the Assembly knocked him off his horse. François Bayrou, ten. Sébastien Lecornu has been hanging on for three months now and yet he could have already fallen several times. The Prime Minister, moreover, resigned when his first government lasted less than twelve hours, seeing his government coalition shattered after the bloodshed of Bruno Retailleau.

Since then, Sébastien Lecornu has had to deal with “pseudo” partners who make life difficult for him on the budget: the boss of LR, therefore, but also Édouard Philippe, although his friend.

Sébastien Lecornu plays the monk-soldier card to the fullest, who has no ambition for himself and spends his time looking for ways of passage, a “thankless job”he admits. In the end, he only has one reliable partner: the Socialist Party, which voted for the Social Security budget, notably thanks to the suspension of the pension reform. To ensure a little stability, Sébastien Lecornu has no qualms about abusing the Macronist totems.

However, the government is entering the toughest phase with the state budget. This will be the real crash test. On paper, it’s even mission impossible. Unless he decides to go through force with a 49.3 or ordinances, which would not exempt him from a compromise with the PS, at the socialist rate, therefore. Otherwise, there will be censorship and a new political-budgetary psychodrama.

On the other hand, if Sébastien Lecornu manages to pass the budget test, a highway will open up to him, to the point that certain ministers could stay in office until the presidential election. It’s a bit presumptuous, even if this budget is indeed his last Himalaya. Then comes the time of the municipal elections, where the presidential party does not play the role of “win” and does not have much to lose since it is starting from almost nothing.

After this election, the political class will be in the starting blocks for the presidential election. The government will manage current affairs: the 2027 budget will be a provisional budget, because there is a good chance that the future president will quickly produce an amending text. The 2026 budget really represents a double or nothing for Sébastien Lecornu.