Ukraine’s European allies marshalled resources this week to provide the besieged country with air defences against drones and ballistic missiles.
The European Union also announced an 18th round of sanctions designed to sever all remaining Russian energy imports, and proposed a fivefold increase in the common defence budget to boost EU defence research and procurement.
European leaders convinced the United States to symbolically rejoin the 52-nation Ukraine Defence Contact Group coordinating defence donations, but not as a donor.
It was the first such meeting attended by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth since February, when he told EU members that pushing Russia out of Ukraine’s internationally recognised territory was unrealistic.
Operational developments
As the ideological chasm between the EU and the US over Ukraine widened, Russia continued to pound Ukrainian defenders, making a few inroads.
Russian forces seized Degtyarnoye in Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv region, Popov Yar in its eastern Donetsk region, and Kamenskoye in the southern region of Zaporizhia on July 17. They captured Belaya Gora on Sunday and Novotoretskoye on Tuesday, both in Donetsk.
While holding its front line, Ukraine has targeted Moscow with long-range weapons for the past two weeks.
Russian air defences downed 13 drones approaching Moscow on Saturday, said its mayor, and Ukrainian drones disrupted traffic in Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport on Sunday, said Andriy Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation.
Then, on Monday, Russia claimed to have shot down 74 Ukrainian drones, a third of them near Moscow. Others must have hit their targets, because a fire at Kamenolomny station in the Rostov region caused delays to train services in the Caucasus.
Kovalenko also said that on June 11, Ukrainian drones attacked the Lukhovitsky Aviation Plant in the Moscow region, which produces MiG-29 and MiG-31 fighters. Ukraine’s General Staff said drones also hit the Shipunov Design Bureau – a manufacturer of anti-aircraft missiles.
The following day, Ukraine reportedly blew up a gas pipeline in Khanty-Mansiysk, about 3,000km (1,900 miles) from Moscow. The pipeline reportedly supplied military production facilities.
Drone air defence
At Monday’s meeting of Ukraine’s allies, known as the Ramstein format, after the German town where the meetings began, the United Kingdom and Germany pledged to jointly provide Ukraine with an unspecified number of missiles to defend its skies.
“Boris and I have agreed to jointly supply Ukraine with critically needed anti-aircraft missiles,” UK Defence Secretary John Healy said, referring to German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius.
Ukraine uses the German-made IRIS-T and US-made NASAMS and SHORAD missile defence systems against drone attacks, which have intensified in recent weeks.
From July 17 to 22, Ukraine shot down or electronically suppressed 833 of 968 unmanned aerial vehicles targeting its cities and critical infrastructure.
The largest attack came on Monday, when Russia launched 426 drones overnight, along with five Kh-47 M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, four Kalibr cruise missiles, one Iskander-K cruise missile and 14 Kh-101 cruise missiles.
The largest attack of the war on July 9 used 728 drones, and the head of the German Planning and Command Staff, Major-General Christian Freuding, said on Saturday that Russia plans to further increase its drone production capacity with the goal of launching 2,000 drones in one overnight strike package.
Ukraine has used a variety of methods to down or disable drones, including man-portable air defence kits, heavy machineguns and electronic warfare. But its most successful methods so far have proven the German radar-assisted Gepard anti-air 35mm gun and its domestically-developed interceptor drones, said Ukrainian drone warfare expert Olena Kryzhanivska.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made such domestically produced weapons a top priority.
Inaugurating a new government headed by Yulia Svyrydenko on July 17, Zelenskyy said its top priority was to increase domestic arms production: “Currently, about 40 percent of the weapons in the hands of our warriors are made in Ukraine. In six months, it should be no less than 50 percent,” he said.
The goal was “to push the war back onto Russia’s territory – back to where the war was brought from. So that they feel what they’ve done”, Zelenskyy said.
Pistorius revealed details of a separate German collaboration with the US to provide Ukraine with Patriot air defence batteries.
Ballistic air defence
Ukraine has no domestic solution for countering Russia’s deadliest long-range weapons, its ballistic missiles.
The only effective defence it possesses is the US-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system.
Pistorius revealed on Monday that “during my trip to Washington last week, I agreed with Pete Hegseth that Germany would contribute to the rapid provision of five much-needed Patriot systems.”
A complete Patriot system consists of a central radar and antenna array, and at least six launch vehicles carrying four interceptor missiles each.
It appeared that Germany would pay for these systems. In return, the US would award it – and other countries donating their Patriots to Ukraine – priority placement in the production queue when buying replacement systems.
Zelenskyy told Newsmax and the New York Post that he would separately buy Patriot systems and pay for them with Ukrainian-built drones.
“I told President Trump: ‘The American people need this technology, and you should have it in your arsenal.’ I believe this is a mega deal – a win-win for both sides. We’re ready to share our experience with America and European partners,” Zelenskyy told Newsmax.
Europe at the forefront of Ukraine aid
While the US administration of Donald Trump remains willing to sell military kit to Ukraine after suspending donations, Europe remains ideologically committed to bankrolling Ukraine’s defence and ending its own reliance on the US.
Presenting the EU’s next seven-year, 1,816-billion-euro ($2,130bn) budget on July 16, Ursula Von Der Leyen proposed a 131-billion-euro ($154bn) budget for defence and space, a fivefold increase on the 2021-27 budget.
The money, which is in addition to that spent by EU national governments, would go towards buying European defence goods, investing in European defence industries, cybersecurity and dual-purpose critical infrastructure.
Von Der Leyen proposed establishing a European Competitiveness Fund for defence research and innovation. She also proposed doubling the Ukraine Assistance Fund to 100 billion euros ($117bn).
On July 18, the EU succeeded in agreeing on an 18th raft of sanctions against Russia.
It bans the last remnants of Russian energy purchases from the EU, worth about 23 billion euros ($27bn), and lowers a price cap on oil carried to third parties on EU-insured tankers.
The UK, where much of the world’s tanker fleet is insured, has coordinated with the EU to follow the price cap of $47.60 per barrel, down from the price cap imposed in December 2022 of $60.
“The UK and EU are working in lockstep to combat those callously fuelling the fires of destruction in Ukraine,” said the UK Foreign Office.
The new price cap will be dynamic, and is to be set 15 percent below market prices every six months.
The EU forbade companies from transacting with the Russian-built Nordstream I and II pipelines, which were blown up in 2022, ensuring they would never be repaired or rescued from bankruptcy.
The EU also banned any refined oil products from entering the EU, and added 105 vessels to the Russian shadow fleet banned from entering EU ports or receiving services, bringing the total to 444.
The EU increased the number of Russian banks banned from transacting with its financial sector from 23 to 45, and sanctioned dozens of entities and companies believed to be helping Russia circumvent sanctions to its defence industry, 11 of them non-Russian.
Diplomacy versus all-out war
Amid this barrage of new measures from the EU and its slender mercantile collaboration with the US, diplomacy was not entirely given up.
Ukraine proposed, and Russia accepted, a third round of direct talks in Istanbul on Thursday. Putin would attend China’s 80th anniversary celebrations commemorating its defeat of Japan in World War II, the Kremlin said, and could meet with Trump if the latter accepted the invitation.
Trump has spent most of his political career demonising China, however, and might resist casting it in the role of peace broker.
US Air Force general Alexus Grynkewich told Bild last week that “the EU and the US have only 18 months to prepare for a global military conflict with China and Russia.
“China and Russia are preparing for a simultaneous strike on Taiwan and Europe,” Grynkewich was quoted as saying.
“The conflict could start with a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Since Russia is currently a satellite of the PRC, Xi Jinping will undoubtedly coordinate actions with Putin. We will need every piece of equipment, all available machinery, and every munition we can get to be ready,” reported the commander-in-chief of NATO’s European forces.
