In a note entitled “ Central Bank of Tunisia: is it time to reduce interest rates? », the Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE) estimates that a lowering of the key rate could encourage the use of debt to finance import operations, which could increase pressure on the country’s foreign currency reserves.
According to the IACE, such a measure “ would lead to an increase in demand for foreign currencies », thus accentuating tensions on hard currency reserves and on the value of the dinar. The Institute underlines in this regard that the deterioration of foreign trade remains worrying, with a trade deficit estimated at 16.7 billion dinars in 2025, compared to 13.5 billion dinars in 2024.
Although the surplus in the services balance slightly helped to attenuate this trend, the current account deficit worsened to reach 1.9% of GDP in 2025, compared to 1.2% in 2024, the organization adds. This situation, according to her, “ reinforces the need for external financing and puts increasing pressure on foreign currency liquidity, which further weakens the national currency ».
Foreign currency reserves, estimated at 106 days of import as of October 22, 2025, remain fragile, warns the Institute, stressing that any drop in this level “ could increase tensions over the stability of the dinar and reduce the country’s ability to honor its international commitments ».
The IACE also warns that a further depreciation of the dinar would result in an increase in the prices of imported products and the appearance of new inflationary pressures.
In conclusion, the organization believes that it is still too early to lower the key rate, despite the progress made in controlling inflation. She recalls that the 2026 finance bill involves new inflationary risks, in particular through the financing need of eleven billion dinars to cover the state budget.
The Institute therefore recommends that the Central Bank maintain the current monetary policy, judging that any easing “ could further weaken a vulnerable economic fabric and compromise the stability of the dinar ».
M.B.Z
