Infographics. Three graphics to understand the challenges of the trade war between the United States and the European Union

The trade war is declared. After weeks of threats, Donald Trump went on the offensive: the American president imposed, on Wednesday, March 12, customs duties of 25% on European steel and aluminum. Europe was quick to react. Promising a response “Strong but proportionate”The European Commission announced taxes, on April 1, on emblematic products from the United States such as Harley-Davidson and Bourbon motorcycles, as well as other products whose list remains to be defined. In total, Brussels plans to impose countermeasures out of 28 billion dollars in American goods. And continuous escalation: the White House tenant threatened to tax European wine and champagne. Neither the United States nor Europe seem ready to go back for the moment. Franceinfo explains to you in three graphics the challenges of this escalation.

Steel and aluminum represent less than 2% of European exports

Donald Trump has decided to start by targeting steel and aluminum, but the impact remains limited to the scale of transatlantic trade. In 2024, these metals represented less than 2% of the European Union exports to the United States, according to the calculations of Franceinfo from Eurostat data.

“It is quite classic in commercial wars to start by imposing less importance products”Comments Stéphane Auray, researcher at the National School of Statistics and Information Analysis and at the Rennes School of Business. According to this specialist, these customs duties can still have consequences, weighing down the invoice of companies depending on these raw materials for their activities, such as the automotive industry with steel. He also underlines that a risk of climbing is possible: any new increase in a customs right leading to the establishment of another import tax in retaliation.

“These customs duties are binding for businesses because they disrupt the markets, but this is not a major problem for European aluminum industry”relativized Cyrille Mounier, general delegate of aluminum France. In 2018, during the first term of Donald Trump, a similar tax of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum had already been imposed, with an ultimately limited impact on European exports, according to Eurostat data. The representative of the Professional Federation of French Aluminum Industry also argues that Europe produces raw aluminum, while the United States does not make it and must therefore import it. “It would cost them much more to build factories to produce raw metal than to pay customs duties at 25%”he believes.

European and American economies are closely linked

European and American savings are linked by significant trade. The United States is the largest EU trading partner: it represented around 20% of European exports in 2024, according to Eurostat data. In the other direction, Europe depends on its American partner for around 14% of its imports, which makes the United States the second supplier of the EU, just behind China.

These trade is substantial in certain sectors in particular. Europe depends in part on the United States for its oil imports (more than 12% of the total of goods exchanged), gas and certain drugs. As for the United States, in particular it imports European medical and pharmaceutical products, which represent almost 15% of their imports from the EU, but also cars or planes.

“A trade war on the most exchanged products between the EU and the United States would be a disaster.”

Stéphane Auray, economist

in franceinfo

If taxes on the most frequently exchanged products remain limited for the moment, other sectors could however drink. With customs duties “200%”,, “The business stops”warned Nicolas Ozanam, general delegate of the French Federation of Wine and Spirits Exporters, interviewed by AFP. This would amount to triple the price of bottles of tricolor alcohol on the American market. However, France exported to it in 2024 for about 3.9 billion euros, a quarter of its total exports, according to figures from French customs and fevs.

The trade balance leans on the side of Europe

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump regularly denounced the growing trade deficit of the United States with Europe. Right. In ten years, the European Union’s trade surplus vis-à-vis the United States has more than doubled, going from 97.1 billion euros in 2014 to 198.2 billion in 2024. However, this imbalance only concerns goods: the EU has exported many more products to the United States than it imported. On the other hand, for services, Europe is experiencing a trade deficit and largely depends on Americans.

Some European countries, such as Germany or Ireland, which exports more than 50% of its property outside the EU to the United States, are more vulnerable to the consequences of customs rights and are likely to be particularly affected. In the European Parliament, several deputies insisted on the need to be in common in the face of this start of the trade war. In France, the Minister responsible for foreign trade, Laurent Saint-Martin, was determined to defend French and European interests: “We will not give in to threats and will always protect our sectors”, he wrote on the social network X.