Olympique de Marseille lost big on Wednesday. By losing 1-0 against Atalanta Bergamo in the final moments of the match, OM saw their chances of qualifying for the second phase diminish further.
Because after four days in the League phase, the Ciel et Blanc still only have one victory for three defeats and are now at 25e place, while only the first 24 will continue the adventure in the Champions League. The situation is becoming worrying, to say the least, for OM.
And the concern is all the greater as the Olympian club’s program over the last four days promises to be difficult with the receptions of Liverpool and Newcastle at the Vélodrome and trips to Belgium, to Union Saint-Gilloise and Club Bruges.
Only 8 points needed for qualification?
Given the results of last season, the only previous one, OM will therefore have to achieve three victories or at least two victories and two draws to be sure to be play-offs. A year ago, the last qualifier, Club Bruges, had 11 points and was ahead of Dinamo Zagreb on goal difference, the first to be eliminated despite their 11 points.
But this season did not start on the same basis as the previous one. Halfway through, the 24the still only has four points and according to Opta’s projections, qualification should be decided at 8 or 9 points, which would mean that two victories could be enough for OM to qualify. Another major statistics specialist, the Football Meets data account is a little optimistic and estimates that it will take 10 points to qualify.
Several factors explain these differences. Firstly, the much greater number of draws, which mathematically distributes fewer points. After four days, there have already been 16 compared to 10 last season halfway through and 18 at the end of the group stage. Likewise, the big names are much more present than a year ago and lose fewer points against the smaller teams.
The best illustration of this change is the ranking of Atletico Madrid. With six points after four days, the same total as last season, the Colchoneros are in 17th placee place. A year ago, with the same total, there were 23e.
