the budgetary marathon begins in the National Assembly, without 49.3 but under the threat of ordinances

An unprecedented budgetary debate opens on Friday October 24 in the National Assembly. From 3 p.m., the deputies will begin examining the 2026 finance bill (PLF). Like last year, the hemicycle is divided into three blocks, without a clear majority, which led former Prime Minister Michel Barnier to try to have the 2025 budget adopted without a vote, using article 49.3, before being censored. Sébastien Lecornu has committed not to use this constitutional tool, but the equation remains very complex to find a compromise in Parliament on the distribution of the effort to reduce the public deficit, with a cap set at 4.7% of GDP by the government. The budget must be adopted no later than December 31.

The deputies will start by debating the first part of the PLF, relating to revenue. They will then look, from November 4, on the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), which notably plans to suspend pension reform. Then on the second part of the PLF, relating to expenditure, from November 12. The timetable is constrained: the Constitution provides that Parliament has 50 days to examine the PLFSS, and 70 days for the PLF. Consequently, the deadline for the adoption of the state budget should be just before Christmas, December 23, and that for the Social Security budget, at the beginning of December, according to parliamentary sources.

Elected officials from all sides in fact expect endless and trying discussions. “It’s going to be very complicated, especially since the National Rally and La France insoumise are in a software of chaos”sighs the MoDem deputy from Finistère Erwan Balanant. “It will be a rat racepredicted for his part the RN deputy for the Somme Matthias Renault. And in any case, what will have been voted on in the Assembly will then be unraveled by the Senate.” After 40 days maximum, the first part of the state budget will in fact be transmitted to the senators.

At the Palais-Bourbon, the result of the discussions in the finance committee gives a foretaste of what could happen in the hemicycle: the oppositions rejected or had amendments adopted against the advice of the government, largely reworking Sébastien Lecornu’s copy. For example, RN and LFI elected officials jointly adopted a framework for electricity prices. All the oppositions voted against the modification of a tax advantage for retirees, desired by the government. The creation of the Zucman tax, supported by the left, was rejected by the government camp and the National Rally, but will be discussed again in a public session.

At the end of these three days of debate in small committee, the deputies largely rejected the revenue part of the state budget, the left and the far right voting against, as did LR. “It was an incoherent budget that still did not involve the ultra-rich and multinationals,” justified Cyrielle Chatelain, president of the group of environmentalists, on Thursday in front of the press.

From Friday, the public debate starts from the initial copy, that of the government. It looks like it will be very long, with numerous amendments to be examined in eight days for the revenue side. In total, 3,585 amendments have been tabled to date, the office of the National Assembly figures for franceinfo, even if some of them will not be studied due to their inadmissibility. Without recourse to article 49.3, allowing debates to be interrupted, each vote will count to have modifications adopted or not. “It allows us to debate, we know that our amendments will not be swept away”greets Romain Eskenazi, socialist deputy for Val-d’Oise.

Each group president therefore called for the troops to be recalled and called for “general mobilization” from Friday afternoon and until the evening. There is no question for deputies to return to their constituency on Saturday, because the exam is scheduled from 9 a.m. and until late in the evening. In the corridors of the Assembly, everyone remembers the measures voted by the oppositions last year thanks to the absenteeism of part of the common base, and no one wants to be found wanting. “Those absent will be singled out by voters”warns socialist Laurent Baumel.

Because all parties want to achieve victories. As D-Day approached, the groups held a series of press conferences to present their counter-budget and hammer out their priority measures: the taxation of higher incomes or the increase in the minimum wage for the left, the abolition of State medical aid for the Republicans and the National Rally. Marine Le Pen thus defended Thursday a counter-budget that attacks “to the taboos of budgetary policy”. “We will fight step by step to rectify the copy”for his part promised Bruno Retailleau, president of the Republicans (LR) and former Minister of the Interior, in an interview with Figaro.

The deputies, however, agree on one point: during the examination, the government copy will be largely rewritten. “It’s going to be a Frankenstein budget”predicts Daniel Labaronne, deputy of the presidential party, to describe a text which will include measures which are not always coherent, depending on one-off alliances. “Slightly surprising majorities will form, as we saw in committee, with the RN and the left voting on certain amendments together”continues the elected official from Indre-et-Loire, member of the finance committee.

One question remains insoluble: at the end of the debates, who will be able to vote on the finance bill? Traditionally, oppositions do not vote on the government budget. And even if negotiations are taking place with the socialists, who obtained the suspension of the pension reform in exchange for non-censorship on October 16, the group of 69 deputies remains very uncertain about their vote.

As for the common base, it refuses to support a budget grafted with tax increases. “Sébastien Lecornu has agreed to go up to 5% public deficit, because he knows that it will be difficult to find compromises. But if we are too far from the ideal target of 4.7%, we will have difficulty voting for the budget, because it is a guarantee of our credibility and our ability to keep our public accounts”believes Daniel Labaronne.

In the event of rejection of the budget by the Assembly, and after its examination in the Senate, where the majority right should further rework it, a joint committee (CMP) composed of deputies and senators could then try to reach a compromise. But this text will then be submitted to Parliament again, with very little chance of being approved.

Faced with this impasse, the government could end up having the budget adopted by ordinance, as article 47 of the Constitution allows it, at the end of the 70-day period. “It’s legal, even though it’s never been used.”recalls constitutionalist Thibaud Mulier, lecturer at Paris Nanterre University.

“Is the government politically able to issue orders? This can be devastating, and give the image of a forced passage, without a vote, even more than 49.3.”

Thibaud Mulier, lecturer in public law

at franceinfo

A scenario that the executive would however like to avoid, as the Prime Minister declared to Macronist deputies on Tuesday. “There is a desire to achieve this through parliamentary discussions”simply declares his office to franceinfo. “Today, the most likely thing is that the budget will not pass, because no one will recognize it. The timetable is ric-rac, so the government would pass by ordinance, or it would make a special law”believes the president of the finance committee, Eric Coquerel (LFI). Same prognosis on the side of the RN, where “we are betting that it will end with ordinances or a special law”advances Matthias Renault.

In the event of a blockage, the government can in fact introduce a special law to authorize the collection of existing taxes and allow the State and Social Security to borrow. “This allows the country to operate at a minimum, to raise taxes. There is no risk shutdown like in the United States“explains Thibaud Mulier. This is also the device that the government used after the censorship of the Barnier government last December. Another option: Sébastien Lecornu could only have Parliament vote on the revenue side, without touching on expenditure. But it is not certain that a majority will emerge to vote for it either.

The same sword of Damocles hangs over all these scenarios: from the RN to LFI via LR and the PS, all the opposition parties threaten to table a spontaneous motion of censure, to protest against budgetary measures that displease them, or in reaction to the use of a special law or ordinances. “In this case, the examination of the budget would be suspended, while each motion is discussed and put to the vote”explains Thibaud Mulier. If the government was not overthrown, the countdown would then resume, with no guarantee of escaping a new political crisis.