The François Bayrou method at the crash-test

The reclutor’s conclave, extended in extremis, puts the Prime Minister under pressure. Without an agreement by next week, the threat of new censorship resurfaces.

This conclave which plays extensions, is a real crash test for the Bayrou method. Lhe conclave, it was the find that allowed him to escape censorship in early February. The concession which had offered him the indulgence of the PS group. In return for the opening of this negotiation to improve pension reform, the socialists had detached themselves from the rest of the left, in particular the tutelage of the rebellious. If there is no agreement between social partners next week, the socialists could again succumb to the temptation of censorship, a threat that they started to agitate Tuesday, June 17. The involvement of the conclave therefore weighs on François Bayrou’s strategy to maintain himself in power.

François Bayrou’s strategy is to fracture opposition. For the Prime Minister, it is an imperative since it has no absolute majority in the Assembly. The condition of his survival in Matignon is to avoid the alliance of opposites on his back, the coalition of the left and the extreme right which was right for Michel Barnier. Hence this Bayrou method often criticized for its draft side.

The Prime Minister loves the palaver, he does not always give the impression of knowing exactly where he is going. It’s blurry, it’s slow, nobody is really for, but no one is frankly against. He annoys to his camp, but he hardly offers his opponents, a real soap that spins them between their fingers. From consultations to commissions, he saves time, sometimes backs up, lets go of a lot of concessions. And for now, it works. He has just crossed the six -month course in Matignon, twice as much as Michel Barnier. And then, over time, the conclave on pensions has buried the claim that sticks to the executive since the adoption at the hussar of the reform in 2023: the repeal of the legal age of departure at 64 years.

But the rebels continue to claim it. IHe already announces a new motion of censorship probably dedicated to failure. As often very divided, a good part of the socialists could rally there. Even if the fall of the government is not really their interest when Emmanuel Macron will regain his power of dissolution. In any case, the risk is almost inexistent since the RN should not approve it.

In case of white smoke at the conclave next week, François Bayrou will submit his conclusions to Parliament in September. Opponents will undoubtedly return to amendment the abrogation of the age of 64. But the socialists will find it difficult to have a compromise approved by the CFDT.

In short, Cahin-Caha, the Bayrou method should somehow continue its little way to the real Himalayas programmed in the fall, the budget. Censorship will then be much more threatening. Unless by then, a conclave, a brief consultation, a new find, saves him the bet …