“Capitulation”,, “Humiliation”,, “Dark day” : the trade agreement that the United States and the European Union (EU) concluded on July 27 in Turnberry, Scotland, has caused a lot of ink to flow in France, making the country an exception (alongside Hungary) in Europe. From a political point of view, these reactions seem to be founded: the agreement, which provides customs duties of 15 % on American imports from the EU, may seem unbalanced.
From an economic point of view, reality could be more nuanced: as I emphasize in a new reportPublished on September 17, for the European Council for International Relations, the United States, more than Europe, will be the big losers in Trump’s commercial wars.
A first received idea is to think that the EU, China and the other trade partners of the United States will pay the price of American customs tariffs. A survey, published on September 9 in The great continentillustrates this feeling: 89 % of French people believe that the American economy will be the first beneficiary of the July agreement. From an economic point of view, it is a misinterpretation. Customs duties are a tax that US companies will settle on their imports. In the vast majority of cases, these will increase the increase in costs to consumers, a situation that will fuel inflation and weigh on growth.
Research center figures Budget laboratory From Yale University (Connecticut) helps to better understand the impact of customs tariffs on the American economy. According to this institute, the increase in prices caused could cost $ 2,400 (around 2,050 euros) Each American household in 2025. The modest households, which consume more imported products, will be the most affected by these price increases.
In addition to weighing on consumption, these increases will result in a slowdown in activity, especially in construction and agriculture. In total, Trump’s commercial wars could lead to a decrease of 0.5 point of gross domestic product of American growth in 2025 and 2026.
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