what hopes for the Prime Minister?

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What if the discussions on the budget, which had barely begun, stopped abruptly on Thursday, October 16, when the vote of censure was passed. While we thought the soap opera ended on Tuesday October 14, after the satisfaction of the PS, today, the idea seems to worry the ministers. So, the France Télévisions teams did the math.

289 votes are needed to censure the government. If each MP respects the voting instructions of their group, we would have 265 votes. There would therefore be a shortage of 24 deputies. Nothing to worry about Sébastien Lecornu.

But looking more closely, among the 69 socialists, for example, 7 are preparing, according to our information, to censor the government despite the instructions of the PS. “The budget that is presented is an austerity budget and it is very difficult to correct it,” justifies Paul Christophle, PS deputy for Drôme.

Among the 50 LR deputies, some are also hesitant to vote for the motion of censure. In total, taking into account the other groups, there would be 273 votes for censure on Wednesday October 15 evening. Only 16 votes would be needed for the government to fall.

Especially since one element could annoy the socialists, a small, very technical detail which is not one. While on Tuesday October 14, Jean-Pierre Farandou mentioned a law to suspend the pension reform, in session, the Prime Minister mentioned on Wednesday a simple amendment to the Social Security budget. “A fair debate cannot be based on lies or inaccuracies. Not a very public debate, but I think we need to be precise. I think the government needs to table an amendment to the finance bill for Social Security from November”indicates Sébastien Lecornu.

It doesn’t seem like anything, but it changes everything. Because to vote to suspend the pension reform, the socialists would have to adopt a whole set of measures. “They will have to agree to vote for a budget in which you have the suspension of pension reform, but also the increase in medical deductibles and a whole bunch of measures which, today, are opposed by the PS,” analyzes Benjamin Morel, lecturer in public law at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas.

What the other left-wing elected officials do not understand. “How do you expect left-wing deputies to vote for a budget that looks like a real butchery for our health system? This is information that can influence the vote or not of censure on the part of the deputies”launches Clémentine Autain, environmentalist and social deputy for Seine-Saint-Denis.

The motions of censure from France Insoumise and then from the RN will be put to a vote on Thursday October 16 in the Assembly.