Why François Bayrou plays his survival with the end of the “conclave” on pensions

“Everyone is paralyzed.” In the corridors of the National Assembly, macronist deputies once again retain their breath. “I hope everyone will be reasonable. But I fear that there is a window to censor”Lets escape a member of the group together for the Republic. “”Jhe thinks that mayonnaise can go up “adds Antoine Vermorel-Marques, elected Republicans in the Loire. The government will once again be faced with The thorny question of pensions With the end of the unions’ conclave, scheduled for Tuesday, June 17. Announced by François Bayrou during his declaration of general policy of January 14, these negotiations began in late February.

Denouncing “A masquerade”Several unions had quickly slammed the door, such as Force Ouvrière and the CGT. Since then, uncertainty has hovered. Will the remaining unions come to an agreement? And if so, what? Because behind union negotiation, hides a political promise made to the socialists by François Bayrou, at the time of his installation in Matignon. “We have accepted, in a form of ‘deal’ with the government, to negotiate with it because we wanted there to be a budget for France, in exchange for concessions”recalled Olivier Faure, the boss of the PS, on BfmtvAt the beginning of May. Among these concessions: pensions and The very controversial reform of 2023, adopted by 49.3.

The agreement between the Prime Minister and the Socialist Party is simple: no censorship of the government in exchange for a overhaul of the reform by the unions and a translation in a legislative text. “If during this ‘conclave’, this delegation finds a balance and better justice agreement, we will adopt it. Parliament will be seized during the next Social Security financing bill, or before, and if necessary by a law”had detailed the head of government on January 14, before the deputies. The mayor of Pau also warned from the game: “If partners (social) did not agree, it is the current reform that would continue to apply. “

At the time, François Bayrou did not pay publicly on what tenses the left to the highest point: the postponement of the legal retirement age from 62 years to 64 years. But mid-March, during a radio program, The Prime Minister says “No” A return to the 62 yearscausing the ire of unions and part of the oppositions, including the PS. “It is not the Prime Minister to fix this new framing: the ‘conclave’ is launched. Otherwise, as much as everyone is home”then reactsthe spokesperson for the socialist group in the Assembly, Arthur Delaporte, on Franceinfo. Clearly, for the PS, it is up to the unions to fix the contours of this possible overhaul of the reform of 2023.

However, at the time of the last “conclave” meeting, an agreement of the social partners on the age measure seems very chimerical. MEDEF formalized its firm and final rejection on Tuesday on Tuesday of a return to the legal age. Which does not surprise anyone in government.

“Have you thought a quarter of a second that the social partners can agree on the 64 years? We have always known that if they were reaching an agreement, it would be an agreement on annexed objects of the reform.”

An executive advisor

in franceinfo

What will be the position of the Socialist Party if the unions agree on questions such as the arduousness, the careers of women, long careers or the question of the discount? Will they press the censorship button? They voted well, with the rest of the left, The proposal for the resolution of the Communistsadopted by the Assembly on June 5, aimed at repealing the “more regressive measures” of the reform of 2023 and therefore the postponement of the legal age of departure to 64 years.

“The Prime Minister has made commitments. Let him honor them. It will make everyone very calm,” warns the socialist deputy Emmanuel Grégoire. “Censorship is not posedEvacue on its side Hervé Saulignac. The political continuation is inseparable from union expectations and it has not yet been decided. ” Olivier Faure himself boot in touch, leaving the threat hovering, without making it happen. “”Everything is subject to censorship but everything is subject to compromise “he said on RTLJune 12. “”It is not a question of saying that we are going to be Pavlovian and that we will systematically trigger censorship. Simply, it supposes that there is in front of us a power that is negotiating, which is not the case today “he continued.

Supports of the presidential camp are ready to retaliate to a hypothetical threat of socialist censorship. “The Prime Minister’s announcement was that there would be a law on the landing of ‘conclave’, not on the will of such or political party”warns the macronist Ludovic Mendès. “Censor while the Prime Minister keeps his promises, when the French no longer talks about this, when companies ask for stability … Olivier Faure would demonstrate that it is worth nothing better than rebellious France and he will put the national rally in galactic orbit for 2027.” In the ranks of the central block, we also bet that the PS will follow the CFDT in the event of agreement with the other social partners. Olivier Faure’s party will not take the risk of disavowing union training from which he is ideologically close.

If socialist deputies allow ambiguity to censorship, they are already putting pressure on the calendar and want to go fast. “What we are expecting very firmly is that the subject (pensions) either on the agenda before the end of the July session “explains Emmanuel Grégoire. This perspective seems complicated insofar as the extraordinary session of the National Assembly ends on July 11. However, it is already fully fulfilled with in particular the examination of the law on public audiovisual of Rachida Dati, the Minister of Culture. Socialists are not fooled.

“We feel the maneuver. Stop summer to arrive in the fall: the debate on pensions will be mixed with that on the budget.”

Emmanuel Grégoire, socialist deputy

in franceinfo

“Everyone knows that it will end in 49.3 knowing that the government is focusing on the impossibility of censoring municipal elections”,, scheduled for March 2026, continues the elected socialist in Paris. At the end of the last conference of presidents, which was held on June 10 and which aims to organize the agenda in the National Assembly, nothing was scored on this subject for the month of July. “There will be the possibility of a debate during the extraordinary session of September, but the possible measures from the conclave should be incorporated into the social security budget”It is specified in the National Assembly.

Whether in July or in the fall, the Boris Vallaud group remains essential. “”The only ones who have the key to the game are the socialists, They must be treated “comments an overall deputy for the Republic. Clearly, negotiate with them but also consider them. Others, however, doubt a real strategy by François Bayrou to last in Matignon and have a long -term peace with the socialists.

“Between us, the truth is that François Bayrou has no plan.”

A macronist deputy

in franceinfo

All hope that the Socialist Party will not take responsibility for a new instability. “Take up the government by a motion of censorship passed with LFI and the RN five months Before the municipal elections, it will be necessary to assume it “prognostic a minister close to François Bayrou, who concedes “That the difficult moments are in front of us because in the fall everything can be combined”.

There remains a last scenario which could prevent the Prime Minister with a possible censorship. If the “conclave” does not lead to any agreement, there will be no parliamentary follow -up, as announced by François Bayrou. “If there is a failure of the ‘conclave’, it will not be the Prime Minister’s fault. Why then censor it? This is where it was clever”judge the deputy Paul Christophe, president of the Horizons group. “”He cannot be held responsible. He played it skillfully.“” This does not necessarily shelter him. “”If PS deputies want to censor Bayrou, they can find lots of other reasons for doing so “Do we judge in the macronist camp.

François Bayrou is aware of it. Sunday, he promised a “Moment Mendès” in confidences made at Parisian and at The platform. A reference to the passage of Pierre Mendès-France to Matignon which, despite its small duration of seven months, remains, according to the Béarnais, a political reference “Of a man who told the truth even if the French were not ready to provide the efforts he asked for”. “I will be there. I know the extreme risk that it will make me run, but hey, it is the story of my life. There are people who are there to last; I am here to change the situation”he dramatizes with The platform.

“It means that he is ready to die for his ideas rather than denying himself.”

A relative of François Bayrou

in franceinfo

The Prime Minister must present In mid-July his arbitrations for the 2026 budget: he could on this occasion express himself on pensions. Even if everything will depend on the union copy.