Why the European combat aircraft project by 2040 is in trouble

What future for the European combat aircraft program, born in 2017 with France and Germany then joined by Spain ? The Minister of the Armed Forces, Catherine Vautrin, met her German counterpart, Boris Pistorius, on Monday November 17, and Emmanuel Macron spoke with the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, on Tuesday afternoon in Berlin. According to Les Echos, the future air combat system (Scaf) project was to be one of the subjects at the heart of these exchanges.

There is “emergency” to advance this program, insisted Catherine Vautrin on Friday, during a trip to Spain. Same tone from the President of the Republic, who declared Tuesday evening that there is “an obligation of result”after his interview with Friedrich Merz. By 2040, the Scaf must indeed allow the replacement of the Rafale in France and the Eurofighter for Germany and Spain, and this at least until 2080, according to a Senate information report. The initiative, which aims to strengthen the defense of the Old Continent, is however slowed down by disagreements and tensions between the manufacturers in charge of the project: Dassault on the French side, and Airbus on the German and Spanish sides.

During September, Friedrich Merz assured that Germany and Spain wanted “try to reach a solution by the end of 2025”. “The current situation is not satisfactory. We are not making progress on this project”agreed the German chancellor. Franceinfo summarizes why this plan is in trouble.

Because Dassault “would like to have the keys to pilot it”

As pointed out The World, the Dassault Aviation group intends to be recognized as “chief” in the new generation combat aircraft project, despite equal governance between Paris, Berlin and Madrid. “The CEO, Eric Trappier, explains that there is a political logic in this project, with the fact that it is well distributed between the partners, presents to franceinfo Jacob Ross, researcher at the Europe center of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). But for him, it is better to let Dassault control the heart of the project, if Paris wants a high-performance combat aircraft in the early 2040s.”

“My partners do not recognize that I am the leader”, said the CEO of Dassault Aviation on September 24, during a hearing before the Economic Affairs Committee of the National Assembly. “There’s no point in drawing up paperwork, putting billions on the table, if this type of understanding is not recognized,” he added, emphasizing that “we know how to do it alone”.

“I don’t do a three-strip trick. I don’t know how to do it and I don’t need it. (…) The trick, with the Scaf, is simple: I’m asking for the reality of being able to practice a profession as an architect.”

Éric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation

during a hearing at the National Assembly

Facing the deputies, Eric Trappier deplored “difficulties (…) of all kinds”including “an opposition between Dassault and Airbus on the subject”. “I am not against the Scaf project. But, all the same, when Germany says: ‘We are going to exclude the French’, does that matter to you, French politicians?” he said. And the CEO added: “Germany is going to exclude the French from a combat plane project, all because Dassault says it would like to have the keys to pilot it. It’s strange that you don’t react and that I’m the only one to react.”

Asked about the subject by Europe 1on November 11, Catherine Vautrin stressed that “the one who is the reference in terms of construction is obviously Dassault”. “At this stage, there is no other answer in terms of engine”she added.

Because Berlin does not want French “diktat” and is considering other partnerships

When evoking the hypothesis of France being sidelined, Eric Trappier was referring in particular to information published in the press a week earlier. According to Policythe Ministry of Defense discussed its frustrations with French manufacturers during discussions with Airbus. According to media information, Germany is considering building new partnerships in combat aircraft, this time without France.

Germany is particularly considering further cooperation with Sweden, or even entering “very late” in the Global Combat Aircraft Program (GCAP), explains researcher Jacob Ross. The GCAP project, born in 2022, is led by the United Kingdom, Italy and Japan. The objective is to achieve a new generation combat aircraft called “Tempest”, by 2035.

“There is great distrust towards Dassault” in Berlin, analyzes Jacob Ross. Across the Rhine, the French defense industry is seen by some as “imbued with sovereignist culture” in the Scaf project, notes the researcher. Like conservative MP Volker Mayer-Lay, member of the defense committee in the Bundestag, the German Parliament. Paris “does not seek partnership but requires subordinationhe denounced, according to comments cited by the specialized site Opex360. Germany has no reason to comply with this diktat.”

There is certainly (across the Rhine) an awareness that Germany is not capable of building a combat aircraft independently. But there is an increasingly clear desire to do without France and Dassault.

Jacob Ross, researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations

at franceinfo

“I believe that Scaf will move forward without Dassault”, declared Thomas Pretzl, president of the Airbus Defense works council, at the end of September, to the German newspaper Handelsblatt newspaper. “There are more attractive and better suited partners in Europe”he pointed out.

Eric Trappier, on the contrary, estimated in the Assembly that “this is the Bundestag who pilots in Germany. “And the Bundestag, what does it want? It wants its industrialist, whom it sees every day, to have more work than the other, he accused. Competence, knowing if the plane will be effective, that’s not his subject.”

Because a revised project is planned

Faced with Franco-German dissensions, a new Scaf formula could finally emerge soon. According to information from Financial Times, Paris and Berlin are considering a program more centered around the “combat cloud” project. This initiative has the logic “to link different systems, with drivers, unmanned systems (like drones)terrestrial systems, all with protected communication”develops expert Jacob Ross.

For the researcher, this revised version “is a way for Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz to save face”. “This makes it possible to move away from the new generation combat aircraft, without endangering the Scaf. Paris and Berlin will be able to say that they are continuing with the program by developing this combat cloud.”